Naxxar Lionsvs
Zebbug Rangers
COMPLETEDMalta · Challenge League · 9/20/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Naxxar Lions · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 1-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Naxxar Lions 3-1 Zebbug Rangers
Original prediction
Naxxar Lions
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.20 | 75.2% | 50.7% | -24.5 pts |
| Draw | 5.70 | 15.9% | 23.9% | 8.0 pts |
| Away | 10.16 | 8.9% | 25.4% | 16.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.20 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-24.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.1–27%
Predicted outcome
Naxxar Lions
Probability
50.7%
Model confidence
50.7%
Naxxar Lions has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 10 · avg 0.80/2.00
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80