Naxxar Lionsvs
Victoria Hotspurs
COMPLETEDMalta · Challenge League · 10/18/2026, 12:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Naxxar Lions · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Naxxar Lions 1-0 Victoria Hotspurs
Original prediction
Naxxar Lions
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 00:30 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.17 | 41.6% | 41.7% | 0.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.57 | 25.4% | 25.4% | -0.0 pts |
| Away | 2.74 | 33.0% | 33.0% | -0.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.17 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Naxxar Lions
Probability
41.7%
Model confidence
41.7%
Naxxar Lions has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 10 · avg 2.00/2.00
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.67/1.33