Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Navbahor · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (12%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Navbahor 1-1 Pakhtakor
Original prediction
Navbahor
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.41 | 37.8% | 37.2% | -0.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.25 | 28.0% | 26.8% | -1.2 pts |
| Away | 2.66 | 34.2% | 36.0% | 1.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.25 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–012%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
Navbahor
Probability
37.2%
Model confidence
37.2%
Navbahor has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
NavbahorDWWDW
GF 11 · GA 6 · avg 2.20/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
PakhtakorDWWDW
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00
BTTS 5/5O2.5 3/5
NavbahorPakhtakor
59.4Attack60.9
66.7Defence69.6
65.2Form75.4
65.0Power70.6
1.14xG1.13