Navalcarnerovs
Real Ávila
COMPLETEDSpain · Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 · 9/13/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Navalcarnero · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Navalcarnero 2-1 Real Ávila
Original prediction
Navalcarnero
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.13 | 42.8% | 39.4% | -3.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.12 | 29.1% | 28.7% | -0.4 pts |
| Away | 3.24 | 28.1% | 31.9% | 3.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.13 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Navalcarnero
Probability
39.4%
Model confidence
39.4%
Navalcarnero has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 2 · avg 1.20/0.40
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00