Navalcarnerovs
Real Murcia
COMPLETEDSpain · Copa Federacion · 9/30/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Navalcarnero · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Navalcarnero 3-1 Real Murcia
Original prediction
Navalcarnero
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 25 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.65 | 24.8% | 42.2% | 17.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.45 | 26.3% | 26.4% | 0.2 pts |
| Away | 1.85 | 49.0% | 31.4% | -17.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 2.65 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
17.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–010%
- 3.2–110%
Predicted outcome
Navalcarnero
Probability
42.2%
Model confidence
42.2%
Navalcarnero has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 6 · avg 2.20/1.20
GF 12 · GA 7 · avg 2.40/1.40