Navalcarnerovs
Conquense
COMPLETEDSpain · Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 · 9/27/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Navalcarnero · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (10%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Navalcarnero 1-3 Conquense
Original prediction
Navalcarnero
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 17:28 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.90 | 30.9% | 36.0% | 5.1 pts |
| Draw | 2.87 | 31.3% | 29.9% | -1.4 pts |
| Away | 2.38 | 37.7% | 34.0% | -3.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Navalcarnero
Probability
36.0%
Model confidence
36.0%
Navalcarnero has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80
GF 11 · GA 4 · avg 2.20/0.80