Nautico Recifevs
Vila Nova
COMPLETEDBrazil · Serie B · 10/11/2026, 8:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Vila Nova · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Nautico Recife 0-0 Vila Nova, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Nautico Recife 0-2 Vila Nova
Original prediction
Vila Nova
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 09:28 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.68 | 34.5% | 29.9% | -4.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.09 | 29.9% | 29.7% | -0.2 pts |
| Away | 2.61 | 35.5% | 40.3% | 4.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.61 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.8 pts
Projected Score
Nautico Recife 0–0 Vila Nova
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Vila Nova
Probability
40.3%
Model confidence
40.3%
Vila Nova has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Nautico RecifeLDWLD
GF 7 · GA 10 · avg 1.40/2.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Vila NovaDWWWD
GF 5 · GA 1 · avg 1.00/0.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 0/5
Nautico RecifeVila Nova
40.6Attack45.8
58.3Defence67.7
43.8Form60.4
49.1Power59.0
0.82xG1.08