Nautico Recifevs
Athletic Club
COMPLETEDBrazil · Serie B · 8/28/2026, 11:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Nautico Recife · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Nautico Recife 0-0 Athletic Club, with an exact score probability of 22%.
Prediction record
Final result
Nautico Recife 2-1 Athletic Club
Original prediction
Nautico Recife
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:52 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.82 | 51.3% | 41.7% | -9.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.39 | 27.6% | 30.9% | 3.4 pts |
| Away | 4.42 | 21.1% | 27.4% | 6.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.82 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.6 pts
Projected Score
Nautico Recife 0–0 Athletic Club
Exact score probability: 22%
Predicted outcome
Nautico Recife
Probability
41.7%
Model confidence
41.7%
Nautico Recife has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 3 · avg 0.80/0.60
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60