Nasarawa Unitedvs
Rivers United
COMPLETEDNigeria · NPFL · 9/20/2026, 3:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Rivers United · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (13%), 0-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Nasarawa United 1-1 Rivers United
Original prediction
Rivers United
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.82 | 49.4% | 34.1% | -15.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.12 | 28.9% | 29.0% | 0.2 pts |
| Away | 4.15 | 21.7% | 36.8% | 15.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.12 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
15.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–113%
- 3.0–013%
Predicted outcome
Rivers United
Probability
36.8%
Model confidence
36.8%
Rivers United has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60
GF 13 · GA 2 · avg 2.60/0.40