Nasarawa Unitedvs
Doma United
COMPLETEDNigeria · NPFL · 10/11/2026, 3:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Nasarawa United · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (14%), 0-1 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Nasarawa United 2-0 Doma United
Original prediction
Nasarawa United
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 15 September 2026 at 19:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.55 | 58.2% | 40.4% | -17.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.52 | 25.7% | 28.3% | 2.6 pts |
| Away | 5.61 | 16.1% | 31.3% | 15.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.55 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-17.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–014%
- 3.0–112%
Predicted outcome
Nasarawa United
Probability
40.4%
Model confidence
40.4%
Nasarawa United has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60