Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Nasaf · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Nasaf are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WDWLD), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Xorazm are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DWDWL), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Nasaf hold a 12.9-point power-rating edge (56.6 v 43.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 51.0% in the Super League, while Nasaf holds the strongest overall chance at 51% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 28% BTTS chance and 25% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Nasaf
Probability
51.0%
Model confidence
51.0%
Nasaf has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20