Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Nasaf · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Nasaf are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (DWWWD), averaging 1.40 scored and 0.60 conceded, while Surkhon are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (DLLWW), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Nasaf hold a 15.3-point power-rating edge (56.6 v 41.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 54.5% in the Super League, while Nasaf holds the strongest overall chance at 55% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 29% BTTS chance and 28% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Nasaf
Probability
54.5%
Model confidence
54.5%
Nasaf has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 3 · avg 1.40/0.60
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40