Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Nasaf · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (11%), 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Nasaf 2-1 Sogdiana
Original prediction
Nasaf
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 12:27 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.45 | 62.7% | 57.8% | -4.9 pts |
| Draw | 4.15 | 21.9% | 22.8% | 0.9 pts |
| Away | 5.90 | 15.4% | 19.4% | 4.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.45 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–011%
- 2.1–111%
- 3.2–110%
Predicted outcome
Nasaf
Probability
57.8%
Model confidence
57.8%
Nasaf has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
NasafDLWWD
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
SogdianaLDLLD
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
NasafSogdiana
48.6Attack56.9
69.4Defence34.7
52.8Form40.3
57.9Power45.1
2.11xG0.92