Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Neftchi · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Nasaf 0-1 Neftchi, with an exact score probability of 20%.
Prediction record
Final result
Nasaf 6-2 Neftchi
Original prediction
Neftchi
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:10 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.74 | 24.3% | 17.6% | -6.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.07 | 29.5% | 27.1% | -2.5 pts |
| Away | 1.96 | 46.2% | 55.3% | 9.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.1 pts
Projected Score
Nasaf 0–1 Neftchi
Exact score probability: 20%
Predicted outcome
Neftchi
Probability
55.3%
Model confidence
55.3%
Neftchi has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
NasafLLLDW
GF 3 · GA 5 · avg 0.60/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
NeftchiWLWWD
GF 12 · GA 4 · avg 2.40/0.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 4/5
NasafNeftchi
35.1Attack78.9
68.4Defence82.5
43.9Form78.9
51.5Power78.0
0.52xG1.39