Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Nasaf · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Nasaf are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LDDWL), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Lokomotiv are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LWDLL), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Nasaf hold a 2.5-point power-rating edge (56.6 v 54.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 40.7% in the Super League, while Nasaf holds the strongest overall chance at 41% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 39% BTTS chance and 31% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Nasaf
Probability
40.7%
Model confidence
40.7%
Nasaf has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00
GF 4 · GA 9 · avg 0.80/1.80