Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Nasaf · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Nasaf 1-0 Bunyodkor, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
Nasaf 3-0 Bunyodkor
Original prediction
Nasaf
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.42 | 64.2% | 60.9% | -3.3 pts |
| Draw | 4.37 | 20.8% | 23.7% | 2.9 pts |
| Away | 6.04 | 15.0% | 15.4% | 0.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.42 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.3 pts
Projected Score
Nasaf 1–0 Bunyodkor
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
Nasaf
Probability
60.9%
Model confidence
60.9%
Nasaf has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
NasafWLLLD
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
BunyodkorLLLLL
GF 6 · GA 13 · avg 1.20/2.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
NasafBunyodkor
43.3Attack33.3
66.7Defence46.7
46.7Form31.7
53.6Power40.0
1.54xG0.58