Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Narva U21 · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-2 (7%), 4-2 (7%), 3-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Narva U21 1-0 Luunja
Original prediction
Narva U21
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.19 | 75.4% | 70.2% | -5.3 pts |
| Draw | 6.49 | 13.8% | 13.7% | -0.1 pts |
| Away | 8.30 | 10.8% | 16.2% | 5.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.19 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–27%
- 2.4–27%
- 3.3–17%
Predicted outcome
Narva U21
Probability
70.2%
Model confidence
70.2%
Narva U21 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Narva U21WWWDL
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
LuunjaWLLLL
GF 10 · GA 15 · avg 2.00/3.00
BTTS 5/5O2.5 5/5
Narva U21Luunja
81.5Attack84.5
58.0Defence31.0
66.7Form56.0
66.7Power55.5
3.99xG2.01