Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Nardo · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 4-2
Nardo are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LWLLD), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Orkla are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WDLWL), averaging 1.60 scored and 2.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Nardo hold a 4.4-point power-rating edge (39.0 v 34.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 4-2 the most likely exact scoreline at 6.5% in the 3. Division - Girone 2, while Nardo holds the strongest overall chance at 56% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 91% BTTS chance and 95% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Nardo
Probability
55.6%
Model confidence
6.5%
Nardo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80
GF 8 · GA 12 · avg 1.60/2.40