Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Nara Club · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (11%), 2-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Nara Club 1-3 FC Ryukyu
Original prediction
Nara Club
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 06:45 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.05 | 43.6% | 47.9% | 4.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.48 | 25.7% | 25.5% | -0.2 pts |
| Away | 2.91 | 30.7% | 26.6% | -4.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.2–010%
Predicted outcome
Nara Club
Probability
47.9%
Model confidence
47.9%
Nara Club has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Nara ClubLWWWW
GF 8 · GA 3 · avg 1.60/0.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
FC RyukyuWWLLD
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
Nara ClubFC Ryukyu
61.1Attack36.1
50.0Defence61.1
63.9Form47.2
59.8Power50.1
1.58xG0.96