Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (13%), 0-1 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Napredak 3-0 Loznica
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 10:39 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.23 | 40.5% | 34.4% | -6.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.15 | 28.7% | 30.4% | 1.7 pts |
| Away | 2.93 | 30.8% | 35.2% | 4.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–013%
- 3.0–112%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
30.4%
Model confidence
35.2%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
NapredakDLLLW
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
LoznicaWWDLD
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
NapredakLoznica
22.2Attack50.0
55.6Defence66.7
44.4Form66.7
43.8Power64.8
0.98xG1.17