Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Napredak · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Napredak 0-0 Dubočica, with an exact score probability of 20%.
Prediction record
Final result
Napredak 1-0 Dubočica
Original prediction
Napredak
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 19:38 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.75 | 51.9% | 40.3% | -11.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.45 | 26.3% | 29.9% | 3.6 pts |
| Away | 4.18 | 21.7% | 29.8% | 8.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.75 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.7 pts
Projected Score
Napredak 0–0 Dubočica
Exact score probability: 20%
Predicted outcome
Napredak
Probability
40.3%
Model confidence
40.3%
Napredak has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
NapredakDWDLL
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
DubočicaWDDDW
GF 5 · GA 2 · avg 1.00/0.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
NapredakDubočica
33.3Attack38.5
61.5Defence59.0
46.2Form48.7
49.0Power50.0
0.87xG0.81