Napolivs
Bodo/Glimt
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Champions League · 10/20/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bodo/Glimt · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (9%), 1-2 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Napoli 4-3 Bodo/Glimt
Original prediction
Bodo/Glimt
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 18:16 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.74 | 55.0% | 36.3% | -18.7 pts |
| Draw | 4.06 | 23.5% | 24.6% | 1.1 pts |
| Away | 4.46 | 21.4% | 39.0% | 17.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
17.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–19%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Bodo/Glimt
Probability
39.0%
Model confidence
39.0%
Bodo/Glimt has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
GF 13 · GA 5 · avg 2.60/1.00