Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
AS Roma · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (12%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Napoli 3-3 AS Roma
Original prediction
AS Roma
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.69 | 35.3% | 27.4% | -7.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.31 | 28.7% | 26.4% | -2.3 pts |
| Away | 2.63 | 36.0% | 46.2% | 10.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.31 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
10.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–112%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
AS Roma
Probability
46.2%
Model confidence
46.2%
AS Roma has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
NapoliWLLWD
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
AS RomaWWLDD
GF 11 · GA 6 · avg 2.20/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
NapoliAS Roma
47.6Attack76.2
66.7Defence85.7
47.6Form81.0
54.6Power79.8
0.91xG1.49