Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Arsenal · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (12%), 1-1 (11%), 0-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Napoli 0-1 Arsenal
Original prediction
Arsenal
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 18:16 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.60 | 17.0% | 17.6% | 0.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.86 | 24.7% | 22.4% | -2.3 pts |
| Away | 1.64 | 58.3% | 60.0% | 1.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.64 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–212%
- 2.1–111%
- 3.0–111%
Predicted outcome
Arsenal
Probability
60.0%
Model confidence
60.0%
Arsenal has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
NapoliLLWWD
GF 12 · GA 8 · avg 2.40/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
ArsenalWWWWD
GF 10 · GA 2 · avg 2.00/0.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
NapoliArsenal
50.0Attack63.3
45.8Defence73.3
45.8Form56.7
49.6Power62.4
0.86xG1.93