Naplesvs
Union Omaha
COMPLETEDUSA · USL League One · 8/26/2026, 11:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Union Omaha · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (12%), 1-1 (11%), 0-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Naples 2-0 Union Omaha
Original prediction
Union Omaha
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:49 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.23 | 27.9% | 18.7% | -9.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.46 | 26.0% | 21.2% | -4.8 pts |
| Away | 1.96 | 46.0% | 60.1% | 14.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
14.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–212%
- 2.1–111%
- 3.0–111%
Predicted outcome
Union Omaha
Probability
60.1%
Model confidence
60.1%
Union Omaha has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 10 · avg 1.40/2.00
GF 13 · GA 4 · avg 2.60/0.80