Naplesvs
Richmond Kickers
COMPLETEDUSA · USL League One · 10/7/2026, 11:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Naples · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (10%), 2-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Naples 2-0 Richmond Kickers
Original prediction
Naples
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 7 September 2026 at 00:11 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.59 | 56.7% | 46.1% | -10.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.98 | 22.6% | 27.3% | 4.8 pts |
| Away | 4.33 | 20.7% | 26.6% | 5.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.59 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.2–010%
Predicted outcome
Naples
Probability
46.1%
Model confidence
46.1%
Naples has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
NaplesWWDDL
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Richmond KickersWLLLD
GF 9 · GA 13 · avg 1.80/2.60
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
NaplesRichmond Kickers
38.1Attack35.7
47.6Defence31.0
40.5Form27.4
44.3Power33.9
1.75xG1.00