Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Naples · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Naples 2-1 NY Cosmos
Original prediction
Naples
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 05:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.11 | 42.6% | 39.8% | -2.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.55 | 25.4% | 28.3% | 2.9 pts |
| Away | 2.81 | 32.1% | 31.9% | -0.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.11 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–08%
Predicted outcome
Naples
Probability
39.8%
Model confidence
39.8%
Naples has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
NaplesWDDLL
GF 3 · GA 8 · avg 0.60/1.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
NY CosmosWLLWL
GF 10 · GA 10 · avg 2.00/2.00
BTTS 5/5O2.5 5/5
NaplesNY Cosmos
37.0Attack43.2
46.9Defence33.3
38.3Form30.9
43.0Power38.3
1.62xG1.24