Naplesvs
Chattanooga Red Wolves
COMPLETEDUSA · USL League One · 9/26/2026, 11:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Chattanooga Red Wolves · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Naples 1-0 Chattanooga Red Wolves
Original prediction
Chattanooga Red Wolves
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 05:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.19 | 40.7% | 31.6% | -9.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.33 | 26.9% | 28.1% | 1.2 pts |
| Away | 2.76 | 32.4% | 40.3% | 7.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–29%
Predicted outcome
Chattanooga Red Wolves
Probability
40.3%
Model confidence
40.3%
Chattanooga Red Wolves has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60
GF 7 · GA 3 · avg 1.40/0.60