Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Boise · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (10%), 0-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Naples 0-2 Boise
Original prediction
Boise
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:23 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.52 | 35.1% | 28.7% | -6.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.35 | 26.5% | 23.7% | -2.8 pts |
| Away | 2.31 | 38.4% | 47.6% | 9.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.31 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–19%
Predicted outcome
Boise
Probability
47.6%
Model confidence
47.6%
Boise has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
NaplesLWWLW
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
BoiseWDWWD
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
NaplesBoise
39.1Attack52.2
43.5Defence52.2
37.7Form55.1
42.3Power55.0
1.16xG1.69