Napier City Roversvs
Wellington Phoenix II
COMPLETEDNew-Zealand · National League - National · 10/24/2026, 11:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Napier City Rovers · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (9%), 2-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Napier City Rovers 5-2 Wellington Phoenix II
Original prediction
Napier City Rovers
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 September 2026 at 00:40 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.18 | 76.7% | 51.2% | -25.5 pts |
| Draw | 6.37 | 14.2% | 21.7% | 7.5 pts |
| Away | 10.00 | 9.1% | 27.1% | 18.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.18 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-25.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–19%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Napier City Rovers
Probability
51.2%
Model confidence
51.2%
Napier City Rovers has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 13 · avg 1.00/2.60
GF 10 · GA 17 · avg 2.00/3.40