Naçãovs
Santa Catarina
COMPLETEDBrazil · Copa Santa Catarina · 9/6/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Santa Catarina · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (10%), 1-2 (10%), 1-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Nação 2-2 Santa Catarina
Original prediction
Santa Catarina
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 6.37 | 14.1% | 17.4% | 3.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.70 | 24.3% | 21.8% | -2.6 pts |
| Away | 1.46 | 61.6% | 60.8% | -0.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.70 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–210%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.1–19%
Predicted outcome
Santa Catarina
Probability
60.8%
Model confidence
60.8%
Santa Catarina has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 9 · avg 0.40/1.80
GF 7 · GA 3 · avg 1.40/0.60