Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Blumenau · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (10%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Nação 0-1 Blumenau
Original prediction
Blumenau
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 19 September 2026 at 13:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.09 | 21.9% | 30.4% | 8.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.39 | 26.4% | 27.3% | 0.9 pts |
| Away | 1.73 | 51.7% | 42.3% | -9.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.73 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–110%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Blumenau
Probability
42.3%
Model confidence
42.3%
Blumenau has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
NaçãoDLDLL
GF 4 · GA 10 · avg 0.80/2.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
BlumenauDLDLL
GF 3 · GA 6 · avg 0.60/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
NaçãoBlumenau
33.3Attack25.0
33.3Defence58.3
16.7Form16.7
30.5Power36.5
1.15xG1.31