League TwoLeague Two
Sunday, 2 August 202612:30Updated today
Nantong Haimen Codion

Nantong Haimen Codion

Home
L
vs
12:30
Tai'an Tiankuang

Tai'an Tiankuang

Away
L
Haimen Sports Center Stadium
GoalVio prediction
38% confidence
Tai'an Tiankuang(36%)
Most likely exact score0-1
Win probability
Nantong Haimen Codion
34%
Draw
30%
Tai'an Tiankuang
36%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Nantong Haimen Codion
34
Tai'an Tiankuang
9
Defence
Nantong Haimen Codion
27
Tai'an Tiankuang
66
Momentum
Nantong Haimen Codion
0
Tai'an Tiankuang
0
Danger (xG)
Nantong Haimen Codion
0.90
Tai'an Tiankuang
0.00
Both teams to score
No

The model projects 1.22 xG for Nantong Haimen Codion and 1.33 xG for Tai'an Tiankuang. Nantong Haimen Codion's projected xG of 1.22 is not sufficient to make scoring a reliable expectation — the model does not see them generating enough high-quality chances to break through.The projected 0-1 scoreline features a clean sheet for one side. With only 1 goal expected in total, the match is projected to be a tight, low-scoring affair where one goal may be enough to decide the contest.Tai'an Tiankuang's Defensive Stability Score (66) comfortably exceeds the opposition's Attack Score (34). That structural defensive advantage is the clearest reason the model does not project both teams scoring.

Over 2.5 goals
No

The model projects a combined xG of 2.55 — elevated attacking volume. A combined xG below 2.5 is the model's primary signal that the match is unlikely to produce more than two goals, and this fixture falls below that threshold.The projected 0-1 scoreline stays under the 2.5-goal mark. Only 1 goal is expected in the most likely outcome — the model sees this as a tight, low-scoring contest where one goal could be decisive.The defensive profiles of both sides are stronger than their attacking counterparts — Nantong Haimen Codion's Defensive Stability (27) and Tai'an Tiankuang's (66) both suggest teams capable of limiting the opposition. When both defences are this organised, the model expects a lower-scoring environment.

xG for (Nantong Haimen Codion)
0.90
avg per match
xG for (Tai'an Tiankuang)
0.00
avg per match
xG against (Nantong Haimen Codion)
1.80
avg per match
xG against (Tai'an Tiankuang)
0.90
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
Nantong Haimen CodionNantong Haimen Codion
LD
Tai'an TiankuangTai'an Tiankuang
L

Probability breakdown

38% confidence
Nantong Haimen Codion34%
Draw30%
Tai'an Tiankuang36%

Tai'an Tiankuang leads with 36% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

Share this

Analysis

Tai'an Tiankuang Backed to Win — Model Projects 0-1

Nantong Haimen Codion host Tai'an Tiankuang in League Two. Nantong Haimen Codion have recorded DDLDLW in recent matches while Tai'an Tiankuang arrive with a run of LDLWWD. These sides have met 7 times recently, averaging 1.7 goals per game.

Key factors

: ⚽ Attacking Efficiency Tai'an Tiankuang have averaged 1.4 goals per game in recent fixtures compared to Nantong Haimen Codion's 0.8 — a gap in attacking output that the model captures in its xG projection. Consistent goal-scoring is one of the clearest indicators of a team's ability to convert chances.
: ⚽ Attacking Efficiency Nantong Haimen Codion have averaged 0.85 goals per game recently while Tai'an Tiankuang have managed 1.41. Tai'an Tiankuang have been the more prolific side — a factor the model weighs in its Tai'an Tiankuang win projection.
: ⚠️ Upset Risk Nantong Haimen Codion have won 1 of their last 10 matches — a run of form that keeps this fixture competitive. While Tai'an Tiankuang carry the stronger underlying metrics, Nantong Haimen Codion's recent results mean the gap is narrower than the headline verdict implies.

Why GoalVio backs this

Tai'an Tiankuang hold a slim but consistent edge across the key input metrics. No single factor clears the threshold required to claim a material advantage, but chance quality, defensive organisation, and recent form all point in the same direction — and when multiple independent signals align, that convergence is the model's case for Tai'an Tiankuang.

Biggest risk: The xG gap between these sides is narrow — a small swing in form, a set-piece goal, or a tactical adjustment could flip the result. The model favours Tai'an Tiankuang, but this is not a fixture where the outcome is a foregone conclusion. If Nantong Haimen Codion score first, the game becomes genuinely open.

Risk factors

  • These sides have drawn 3 of their last 7 meetings — history suggests a tight, unpredictable contest.
  • The xG gap is narrow at 0.11 — a small swing in form or tactics could flip the result.
  • Live conditions — weather, team news, and in-game momentum — can always override statistical projections.

Recent form

Nantong Haimen Codion

Nantong Haimen Codion

L
vs Dalian Kewei
4 Jul 2026
12
D
@ Changchun Xidu
27 Jun 2026
00
Tai'an Tiankuang

Tai'an Tiankuang

L
vs Changchun Xidu
5 Jul 2026
01

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Nantong Haimen Codion vs Tai'an Tiankuang?

GoalVio's model predicts Tai'an Tiankuang to win with 38% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Nantong Haimen Codion vs Tai'an Tiankuang?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 0-1.

Will both teams score in Nantong Haimen Codion vs Tai'an Tiankuang?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Nantong Haimen Codion vs Tai'an Tiankuang?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.

Explore more predictions

About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
View full accuracy stats →
Responsible gambling: Predictions are generated by a statistical model for informational purposes only. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. Learn more