Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Nancy · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (11%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Nantes 1-0 Nancy
Original prediction
Nancy
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.87 | 49.9% | 35.4% | -14.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.47 | 26.9% | 27.7% | 0.9 pts |
| Away | 4.02 | 23.2% | 36.8% | 13.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
13.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Nancy
Probability
36.8%
Model confidence
36.8%
Nancy has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
NantesDLLLW
GF 11 · GA 12 · avg 2.20/2.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
NancyWWLDD
GF 5 · GA 3 · avg 1.00/0.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
NantesNancy
50.0Attack25.0
8.3Defence91.7
8.3Form58.3
25.7Power60.3
1.04xG1.34