Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Nantes · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Nantes 2-3 Dunkerque
Original prediction
Nantes
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.63 | 56.9% | 43.8% | -13.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.86 | 24.0% | 25.2% | 1.2 pts |
| Away | 4.87 | 19.0% | 31.1% | 12.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–09%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Nantes
Probability
43.8%
Model confidence
43.8%
Nantes has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
NantesDWLWD
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
DunkerqueLLLWD
GF 3 · GA 9 · avg 0.60/1.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
NantesDunkerque
37.5Attack41.7
45.8Defence45.8
33.3Form33.3
41.7Power42.6
1.32xG1.23