Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Nancy · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (13%), 1-0 (12%), 1-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Nancy 1-0 Laval
Original prediction
Nancy
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 October 2026 at 00:48 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.59 | 58.1% | 50.1% | -8.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.92 | 23.6% | 26.5% | 2.9 pts |
| Away | 5.08 | 18.3% | 23.4% | 5.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.59 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–013%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.1–111%
Predicted outcome
Nancy
Probability
50.1%
Model confidence
50.1%
Nancy has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
NancyWWLWL
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
LavalDLWDL
GF 9 · GA 10 · avg 1.80/2.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
NancyLaval
40.7Attack48.1
70.4Defence25.9
59.3Form22.2
59.4Power35.1
2.04xG0.76