Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Nancy · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (12%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Nancy 1-0 Guingamp
Original prediction
Nancy
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 09:26 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.89 | 49.0% | 42.2% | -6.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.54 | 26.2% | 29.1% | 2.9 pts |
| Away | 3.75 | 24.7% | 28.6% | 3.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.89 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Nancy
Probability
42.2%
Model confidence
42.2%
Nancy has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
NancyLWLLW
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
GuingampWLWDD
GF 10 · GA 10 · avg 2.00/2.00
BTTS 5/5O2.5 5/5
NancyGuingamp
38.1Attack47.6
66.7Defence42.9
47.6Form38.1
53.0Power45.8
1.43xG0.94