Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Namibia · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (14%), 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Namibia 1-0 Congo
Original prediction
Namibia
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 09:50 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.38 | 38.2% | 43.9% | 5.6 pts |
| Draw | 2.92 | 31.2% | 29.1% | -2.1 pts |
| Away | 2.97 | 30.6% | 27.1% | -3.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.38 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–014%
- 2.1–114%
- 3.0–013%
Predicted outcome
Namibia
Probability
43.9%
Model confidence
43.9%
Namibia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
NamibiaLLDDD
GF 1 · GA 6 · avg 0.20/1.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
CongoDWLWL
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
NamibiaCongo
44.4Attack25.0
66.7Defence50.0
55.6Form50.0
59.1Power44.7
1.39xG0.80