Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Phu Dong · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Nam Dinh 1-1 Phu Dong
Original prediction
Phu Dong
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 20:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.00 | 30.2% | 32.1% | 1.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.40 | 26.7% | 27.2% | 0.5 pts |
| Away | 2.10 | 43.1% | 40.8% | -2.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.40 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.0–18%
Predicted outcome
Phu Dong
Probability
40.8%
Model confidence
40.8%
Phu Dong has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Nam DinhLWLDW
GF 10 · GA 8 · avg 2.00/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
Phu DongWWLWW
GF 14 · GA 5 · avg 2.80/1.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
Nam DinhPhu Dong
66.7Attack100.0
50.0Defence66.7
50.0Form100.0
52.2Power89.7
1.31xG1.57