Nakhon Pathomvs
Nong Bua Pitchaya
COMPLETEDThailand · Thai League 2 · 10/17/2026, 11:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Nong Bua Pitchaya · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (12%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Nakhon Pathom 4-3 Nong Bua Pitchaya
Original prediction
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 19:46 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.05 | 29.6% | 29.0% | -0.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.15 | 28.6% | 27.6% | -1.0 pts |
| Away | 2.16 | 41.8% | 43.4% | 1.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–112%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Probability
43.4%
Model confidence
43.4%
Nong Bua Pitchaya has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 4 · avg 0.40/0.80
GF 10 · GA 8 · avg 2.00/1.60