Nakhon Pathomvs
Muangthong United
COMPLETEDThailand · Thai League 2 · 10/10/2026, 11:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Nakhon Pathom 0-0 Muangthong United, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
Nakhon Pathom 1-0 Muangthong United
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 17:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.88 | 31.3% | 34.8% | 3.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.10 | 29.1% | 31.2% | 2.1 pts |
| Away | 2.28 | 39.5% | 34.0% | -5.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.1 pts
Projected Score
Nakhon Pathom 0–0 Muangthong United
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
31.2%
Model confidence
34.8%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Nakhon PathomDDDDW
GF 5 · GA 3 · avg 1.00/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
Muangthong UnitedWLWDL
GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
Nakhon PathomMuangthong United
25.0Attack25.0
75.0Defence66.7
33.3Form58.3
48.3Power53.0
1.02xG0.85