Nagoya Grampusvs
Machida Zelvia
COMPLETEDJapan · J1 League · 9/6/2026, 9:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Machida Zelvia · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 0-2 (11%), 0-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Nagoya Grampus 1-3 Machida Zelvia
Original prediction
Machida Zelvia
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:23 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.19 | 29.3% | 23.3% | -6.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.38 | 27.7% | 24.7% | -3.0 pts |
| Away | 2.17 | 43.0% | 52.1% | 9.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.17 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.0–211%
- 3.0–110%
Predicted outcome
Machida Zelvia
Probability
52.1%
Model confidence
52.1%
Machida Zelvia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 10 · avg 1.40/2.00
GF 13 · GA 3 · avg 2.60/0.60