Nagoya Grampusvs
Cerezo Osaka
COMPLETEDJapan · J1 League · 10/21/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Nagoya Grampus · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (13%), 0-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Nagoya Grampus 1-1 Cerezo Osaka
Original prediction
Nagoya Grampus
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 06:42 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.29 | 40.9% | 48.1% | 7.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.54 | 26.5% | 25.7% | -0.8 pts |
| Away | 2.88 | 32.6% | 26.1% | -6.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.54 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–013%
- 3.0–012%
Predicted outcome
Nagoya Grampus
Probability
48.1%
Model confidence
48.1%
Nagoya Grampus has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 7 · avg 2.20/1.40
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40