Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Naftan · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1
Naftan are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LLWLL), averaging 0.60 scored and 2.40 conceded, while Orsha are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LWWLL), averaging 1.40 scored and 2.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Naftan hold a 25.7-point power-rating edge (42.1 v 16.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 47.4% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Naftan holds the strongest overall chance at 47% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 75% BTTS chance and 79% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Naftan
Probability
47.4%
Model confidence
47.4%
Naftan has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 12 · avg 0.60/2.40
GF 7 · GA 12 · avg 1.40/2.40