Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Minsk · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (12%), 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Naftan 0-3 FC Minsk
Original prediction
FC Minsk
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:19 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.04 | 18.3% | 19.4% | 1.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.60 | 25.7% | 23.7% | -2.0 pts |
| Away | 1.65 | 56.0% | 56.9% | 0.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.65 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–212%
- 2.1–110%
- 3.1–210%
Predicted outcome
FC Minsk
Probability
56.9%
Model confidence
56.9%
FC Minsk has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
NaftanLLLLW
GF 4 · GA 15 · avg 0.80/3.00
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
FC MinskLLLWW
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
NaftanFC Minsk
33.3Attack47.9
23.5Defence56.3
19.6Form52.1
28.4Power53.3
0.87xG2.13