Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Naftan · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (9%), 0-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Naftan 4-1 Belshina
Original prediction
Naftan
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 06:31 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.60 | 35.1% | 38.5% | 3.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.31 | 27.6% | 26.9% | -0.8 pts |
| Away | 2.46 | 37.2% | 34.7% | -2.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.60 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–09%
- 3.0–09%
Predicted outcome
Naftan
Probability
38.5%
Model confidence
38.5%
Naftan has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
NaftanWDLLL
GF 4 · GA 12 · avg 0.80/2.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
BelshinaLWDDD
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 1/5
NaftanBelshina
33.3Attack29.2
23.5Defence35.4
19.6Form25.0
28.4Power32.1
1.37xG1.22