Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Naftan 3-0 Arsenal
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 August 2026 at 01:26 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5-unified-score-distribution.
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.1–29%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
28.4%
Model confidence
13.6%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
NaftanDLLWL
GF 8 · GA 12 · avg 1.60/2.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
ArsenalLLWDW
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
NaftanArsenal
33.3Attack37.3
29.2Defence49.0
20.8Form41.2
30.5Power44.7
1.04xG1.51