Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Naftagas · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (12%), 2-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Naftagas 0-0 Napredak
Original prediction
Naftagas
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 16:58 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.60 | 34.8% | 39.6% | 4.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.11 | 29.1% | 29.6% | 0.5 pts |
| Away | 2.51 | 36.1% | 30.8% | -5.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.11 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.2–010%
Predicted outcome
Naftagas
Probability
39.6%
Model confidence
39.6%
Naftagas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
NaftagasWWLDD
GF 13 · GA 6 · avg 2.60/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
NapredakWDLLL
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
NaftagasNapredak
57.6Attack36.1
54.5Defence58.3
36.4Form47.2
48.2Power49.2
1.52xG0.91