Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Radomlje · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-0 (15%), 1-1 (15%), 0-1 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Nafta 3-1 Radomlje
Original prediction
Radomlje
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:12 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.14 | 42.4% | 33.7% | -8.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.52 | 25.8% | 27.9% | 2.1 pts |
| Away | 2.86 | 31.7% | 38.4% | 6.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–015%
- 2.1–115%
- 3.0–113%
Predicted outcome
Radomlje
Probability
38.4%
Model confidence
38.4%
Radomlje has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
NaftaLLLDL
GF 5 · GA 12 · avg 1.00/2.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
RadomljeDLWLL
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
NaftaRadomlje
30.6Attack30.6
36.1Defence52.8
25.9Form30.6
33.5Power40.0
0.91xG1.09