Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Maribor · BTTS No · Over 2.5 · 0-2
Nafta are 0W-1D-4L in their last 5 (LDLLL), averaging 0.60 scored and 2.80 conceded, while Maribor are 1W-4D-0L in their last 5 (DWDDD), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Maribor hold a 32.4-point power-rating edge (33.5 v 65.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-2 the most likely exact scoreline at 15.8% in the 1. SNL, while Maribor holds the strongest overall chance at 78% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 38% BTTS chance and 56% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Maribor
Probability
78.4%
Model confidence
15.8%
Maribor has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 14 · avg 0.60/2.80
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20