Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Maribor · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Projected score: Nafta 0-2 Maribor, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Nafta 2-3 Maribor
Original prediction
Maribor
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.93 | 15.3% | 8.2% | -7.1 pts |
| Draw | 4.24 | 21.4% | 15.5% | -5.9 pts |
| Away | 1.44 | 63.2% | 76.3% | 13.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.44 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
13.1 pts
Projected Score
Nafta 0–2 Maribor
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Maribor
Probability
76.3%
Model confidence
76.3%
Maribor has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
NaftaLLDLL
GF 3 · GA 12 · avg 0.60/2.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
MariborWDWDD
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 1/5
NaftaMaribor
30.6Attack63.9
36.1Defence70.4
25.9Form64.8
33.5Power65.9
0.53xG2.46